De-icing procedure. Photo: Shutterstock The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has published a new report looking into the current state of scientific knowledge on atmospheric icing and the way climate change could possibly impact the aviation hazard in the future.
The study was developed courtesy of the European Network on Impact of Climate Change on Aviation (EN-ICCA) and it assesses current understanding of atmospheric icing, including conditions involving supercooled liquid droplets, ice crystals and mixed-phase clouds.
Atmospheric icing can pose risks to aircraft by affecting aerodynamic performance, engine reliability and overall flight safety. The report examines the weather conditions that lead to icing, the physical factors influencing its severity and how different aircraft and flight phases can be affected.
EASA says aviation has made progress in forecasting icing conditions, but significant gaps remain.
Predicting icing severity and identifying in-flight ice crystal conditions remains challenging. The agency also points to limitations in observational data, weather model resolution, and how cloud microphysics are represented in models.
These limitations can make it difficult to accurately assess the icing conditions aircraft may encounter.
The report also explores how a changing climate could influence atmospheric icing.
While there is currently limited evidence on how icing trends will develop, preliminary research suggests climate change could affect the frequency, altitude and severity of icing conditions.
EASA therefore says additional research, improved climatological datasets and more advanced modeling will be needed to understand how aviation icing hazards could evolve.
The report recommends two main areas of future work. One focuses on improving icing indices and the data used for climatological research, while the second involves conducting more detailed climate studies using reanalysis datasets and climate model outputs.
The findings are intended to support the aviation industry's ability to understand and adapt to changing weather-related risks.