Twice the number of passengers, millions of new employees: Airbus's huge forecast/ Shutterstock The aviation industry is expected to continue growing rapidly over the next two decades, and worldwide passenger numbers may reach about 10 billion per year by 2045.
This is according to a new forecast published by Airbus, which outlines the aviation market and the services that will be required to support the enormous increase in the number of passengers, aircraft, and flights worldwide.
According to the forecast, global demand for aviation services is expected to double by 2045, reaching more than $420 billion per year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.8%.
At the same time, the global commercial aircraft fleet on which the services forecast is based is expected to reach approximately 45,550 aircraft by 2045.
One of the most striking figures in the forecast is not related to the planes themselves, but to the people needed to operate them. Airbus estimates that over the next 20 years, more than 2.44 million new aviation professionals will be needed worldwide.
Airbus divides the aviation services market into several key areas.
The largest area is expected to continue to be Off-Wing Maintenance, which includes, among other things, repairs and overhauls of engines and major components.
According to the forecast, the size of this market alone is expected to reach approximately $217 billion per year by 2045.
Growth will be driven by the expansion of the global aircraft fleet, the maturation of existing aircraft, and the need for a greater number of treatments and maintenance visits throughout the aircraft's life.
Airbus also sees a surge in the use of digital systems and connectivity. According to the company, digital solutions will become a more central part of airline operations, from predictive maintenance and fleet management to flight planning, fuel savings and real-time connectivity.
The goal is not only to improve the passenger experience, but also to tackle one of the biggest problems in the industry: flight delays and cancellations.
Airbus estimates that the digital and connectivity sectors will be among the fastest growing areas in the services market over the next two decades.
Geographically, Europe, North America and China are expected to remain among the world's largest aviation markets. However, Asia is expected to be the fastest growing region, driven by rising passenger numbers, an expanding middle class and large investments in aircraft fleets and aviation infrastructure.
The forecast also fits into the Global Market Forecast published by Airbus in July, according to which global passenger traffic is expected to grow by approximately 3.9% annually, with demand based, among other things, on growth in countries such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Airbus’s forecast is based on one central assumption: The aviation industry of 2045 will be much larger, more complex and more digital than today. Doubling passenger numbers to around 10 billion a year will require not only thousands of new aircraft, but also a larger maintenance network, millions of new workers, advanced training systems and a wider use of technology that will allow airlines to operate larger fleets efficiently and reliably.
In other words, if Airbus's prediction comes true, the big story of aviation in the next two decades will not just be how many new planes will be produced, but how an entire industry will manage to support almost double the number of passengers.