The Airbus A350F cargo plane. Photo: Airbus Airbus has published its global cargo market forecast for 2026, according to which the world's dedicated cargo aircraft fleet is expected to grow by 46% over the next two decades: from 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 aircraft by 2045.
According to Airbus, the aviation market will need 2,670 freighters during this period. Of the total, 1,580 will be needed to replace older aircraft, while an additional 1,090 will be needed to meet growing demand. About 970 of the aircraft will be new freighters, and 1,700 will be passenger aircraft converted to carry cargo.
Demand is expected to be divided among 1,140 narrow-body aircraft, 860 mid-size wide-body aircraft, and 670 large wide-body aircraft.
Airbus estimates that global trade will grow at an average annual rate of 2.9%, while air cargo traffic is expected to grow by 3.2% annually over the next two decades.
Key growth drivers include e-commerce and demand for rapid transport of technology and computer products. According to the forecast, the value of computers and high-tech products transported by aircraft has doubled in the past three years, reaching 15% of the value of air cargo by 2026.
Asia is expected to remain the leading region for international cargo traffic. North America and Asia-Pacific will also lead demand for cargo aircraft, with demand for 925 and 850 aircraft, respectively.
Airbus notes that new-generation cargo aircraft, including the A350F, along with the conversion of A320, A321, and A330 aircraft, will help operators reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions.