Photo: © Boeing China’s commercial aircraft fleet is expected to more than double over the next 20 years to over 9,800 airplanes, Boeing said today, October 3, in Beijing, as passenger traffic continues to grow and airlines expand their domestic and international networks.
The forecast was released by Boeing as part of its 2026 China Commercial Market Outlook.
According to Boeing, passenger air travel in China is projected to grow by an average of 5% annually, supported by an expanding middle class, more visa-free travel destinations and continued investment in aviation infrastructure.
“Our long-term forecast continues to show strong demand for new airplanes as China’s passenger air traffic outpaces growth globally, supported by favorable economic and policy fundamentals that will make air travel more accessible,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of Commercial Marketing.
China's airlines are expected to take delivery of 9,240 new aircraft between 2026 and 2045. Single-aisle airplanes will account for the largest share, with 7,215 deliveries, representing approximately 78% of the total.
The demand reflects the expected expansion of domestic and regional routes. By 2045, China’s domestic aviation market is forecast to become the largest in the world, as more passengers travel within the country for business and leisure.
Airlines are also expected to use newer, more efficient single-aisle aircraft to expand connections across the Asia-Pacific region and Central Asia.
Long-haul traffic is also expected to increase. Boeing projects that passenger volumes on routes connecting China with Europe, North and South America, Africa and the Middle East will grow faster than the regional average. This will create demand for 1,460 widebody aircraft over the forecast period.
Cargo operations will represent another important source of demand. China's manufacturing sector, high-tech industries and large e-commerce market are expected to drive air freight growth, requiring 160 new production and converted freighters by 2045. These aircraft will provide additional capacity and replace older models.
Despite the expected expansion, fleet renewal will account for a substantial share of China's aircraft demand. The country currently has the world's second-largest commercial jet fleet by country, with nearly 4,500 aircraft.
Boeing estimates that 42% of the 9,240 aircraft expected to be delivered over the next two decades will replace older airplanes, reflecting the growing need for more fuel-efficient and technologically advanced fleets.
The projected deliveries between 2026 and 2045 are:
-Regional aircraft: 405
-Single-aisle aircraft: 7,215
-Widebody aircraft: 1,460
-Freighters: 160
-Total: 9,240 aircraft
Beyond aircraft purchases, Chinese airlines are expected to invest approximately $875 billion over the next 20 years in digital services, aircraft maintenance and personnel training, according to Boeing.
The expansion will also create significant demand for aviation professionals. Boeing forecasts that China's aviation sector will need 425,000 new pilots, technicians and cabin crew by 2045. This will increase demand for training infrastructure and competency-based training and assessment programs.
Boeing also highlighted its long-standing presence in China, where it has maintained business operations and partnerships for nearly 55 years.
The company says its aircraft are an important part of the country's passenger and cargo transportation networks, while Chinese suppliers and employees contribute to the production of Boeing models including the 737, 767, 777 and 787 Dreamliner.
Boeing estimates that its activities in China, including supplier relationships, joint ventures, training, research and development, generate more than $1 billion in direct economic impact.