Photo: Shutterstock The International Air Transport Association (IATA) today (March 17, 2026) published its long-term demand forecast for aviation. According to the report, global demand for flights is expected to double and possibly rise further over the next 24 years, that is, by 2050.
Under the current scenario, which does not take into account the current situation in the Middle East and its impact on the industry, demand will reach 20.8 trillion RPK, up from around 9 trillion in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 3.1%. In a more optimistic scenario, demand could reach 21.9 trillion RPK, with growth of 3.3%, while in a more conservative scenario, it is expected to reach 19.5 trillion RPK, with growth of 2.9%.
The projections are based on various variables, including global economic growth, demographics, aviation fuel prices, the pace of transition to clean energy, and aviation infrastructure development.
A regional analysis shows that the bulk of growth is expected to come from emerging markets. Asia Pacific and Africa are expected to lead with annual growth rates of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. In contrast, Europe and North America are expected to grow at more moderate rates of 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively.
By market, the fastest growing routes are expected to be within Africa, between Africa and Asia Pacific, between Asia Pacific and the Middle East, within Asia Pacific, and between Africa and North America. On the other hand, markets focused on Europe are expected to show lower growth.
The model on which the forecast is based relies on a broad database that includes more than half a million tests of approximately 41,000 routes between countries over the years 2011 to 2024. Among the key variables: population size, employment, flight frequency, and aircraft size. The most significant factor in demand is GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power.